In the fall , they count
The introduction of a minimum amount of space, the ongoing "escape of retailers" from Moscow streets, as well as the "complete restructuring" of shopping centers and operators to the needs of the generation Y buyer, the segment ends 2017 with "restrained optimism".
In the first half of 2017, only 334 thousand square meters of new space entered the Russian market of high-quality shopping centers, which is one third less than the result of the same period of the previous year, says Oksana Kopylova, Head of Retail and warehouse real estate Analytics at JLL. By the end of 2017, the Russian market of shopping centers will be replenished with another 806.2 thousand square meters, which will also be a third lower than the results of the 2nd half of last year.
In Moscow, the annual volume of commissioning will be about 200 thousand sq. m. and will be a record low over the past four years, having decreased by 62% compared to 2016. At the same time, no shopping centers are expected to be commissioned in St. Petersburg in 2017. Colliers International supports: the commissioning of retail space by the end of 2017 in professional shopping malls of the Moscow region (Moscow with satellite cities) will be one of the lowest in the last 10 years, reaching 279 thousand square meters, which is comparable to the indicators of 2008 and 2011.
The largest opening was the Vegas Kuntsevo shopping center with a leasable area of 119.5 thousand square meters, which formed 40% of the new supply of retail space for the year. Among the largest shopping malls introduced in 2017, Colliers International also notes the Butovo Mall (GLA 57 thousand sq. m.) and 4Daily in Mytishchi (GLA 25,5 thousand sq. m.). However, it is worth noting that the launch of a fashion gallery as part of the mallButovo Mall will take place only at the beginning of 2018. According to the company's estimates, by the end of 2017, about 44 thousand square meters of retail space in three shopping centers can be commissioned in Moscow: Shopping center «Mile » in Zhulebino, shopping center «Petrovsky» in Koptevo and a shopping center as part of the IFC «Fili Grad ». In addition, according to Cushman & Wakefield, the construction of a large shopping center "Salaris" in New Moscow began in the past year, the first large-scale real estate object as part of TPU and the implementation of the reconstruction project of the former ADG Group cinemas.
JLL notes that the projects started in the pre-crisis period are now in the final stage or have already been introduced, and the list of announced projects has significantly decreased, so in the future it is possible that there will be a shortage of high-quality supply – there will simply be no new sites for further development of retail operators.
Among the largest objects already introduced in 2017 in the regions of Russia, it is worth noting such shopping centers as "Riviera" in Lipetsk (61 thousand square meters), "Watercolor" in Togliatti (41 thousand square meters), the 3rd stage of the shopping center «Chizhov Gallery » (25 thousand sq. m.) and «TSUM » in Voronezh (16 thousand sq. m.), opened after reconstruction.
In general, according to Cushman & Wakefield, the number of large-scale projects decreased in 2017. If the average size of commissioned projects in 2016 was 43 thousand square meters, then in 2017 it was already 34 thousand square meters. Moreover, among relatively large projects (with a leased area of more than 50 thousand square meters) in 2017, more than half of these are additional phases of already functioning projects (in in 2016, this share was only 10%). Thus, there are really few new large projects – in 2017, mainly small district shopping centers were built.
Major market players are considering the purchase of retail properties. O1 Properties has announced the expansion of its portfolio through the purchase of shopping centers and is negotiating the purchase of the Nevsky Center in St. Petersburg, Vnukovo Outlet Village is a contender for the acquisition of the Immofinanz portfolio. Other investment and development companies – Avica, Fort Group, Malltech – are also considering the possibility of acquiring new retail facilities.
"In 2017, only one large shopping center was opened in Moscow: Vegas Kuntsevo shopping center. Nevertheless, the format of district shopping centers is actively developing: for example, the shopping center "Chocolate" in Belyaevo and the shopping center "Tsimlyansky" in Lublin were opened, " says Olga Yarullina, director of the Department of retail real estate S.A. Ricci. Fashion segment retailers prefer to open stores in the shopping center, and on the contrary, they leave the shopping corridors in the center of Moscow, for many there are too high rental rates. In their place on the main shopping streets of the capital there are economy-level networks. For example, the retailer of household goods "Moskhoztorg" is represented in all the main shopping corridors of Moscow: Tverskaya St., Novy Arbat, Myasnitskaya St., Smolensky Boulevard " in total about 30 outlets".
According to S.A. Ricci's estimates, the vacancy rate on the restored streets of Moscow, however, has also decreased and now stands at about 5-7%. In place of clothing and shoe stores in street retail, economy-segment supermarkets, shops "at home" have come.
Rental rates have changed on the streets where renovation was completed this year under the My Street program (Sadovoye and Boulevard Ring, Tverskaya St.), and in some shopping corridors the rates have increased by 5% (Bolshaya Dmitrovka, Petrovka, Neglinnaya St.). Experts attribute this to the fact that pedestrian traffic has increased here, and in summer it was possible to equip a veranda.
Tenants and landlords in general are trying to find a compromise regarding the cost of rent, however, in those locations where pedestrian traffic has sharply increased, landlords, accordingly, raise rates. In this case, the tenant either agrees to the changed conditions, or changes the place.
To be continued.
Text: Ekaterina Reutskaya
Photo: shutterstock.com
