Stabilization, renovation and Bitcoins
Andrey Kovalev, the owner of the Ecoofis Group of Companies, tells about the forecasts for the development of the commercial real estate market in Moscow in 2018..
In general, the situation on the commercial real estate market, of course, will be based on general economic and general political vectors. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify several expected trends, the probability of which is very high.
Stabilization in the office segment
In 2017, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis period, there is a decrease in the vacancy rate in all market segments. The trend will continue in 2018: the share of empty commercial space will update the minimum reached, demand will continue to grow cautiously. The reasons for the dynamics are the adaptation of business to crisis conditions, the successful search and implementation of new development strategies, as well as the extremely low level of commissioning of new office, warehouse and production areas. The market will not become a lessor's market, but it is quite realistic to expect an increase in rates (by 5%) and a decrease in the vacancy rate (by 0.5%) in all market segments.
New concepts in trade projects
In 2017, the success of the new format of squares in the shopping center became obvious - large conceptual sites with a pronounced entertainment specialization. Gastro- and food zones of various kinds, as well as concert venues and cultural spaces are especially popular with visitors. Fashion clusters have good prospects. Although consumers have also adapted to the crisis, their main strategy remains saving, so the trend towards democratic consumption will not disappear. This means, in particular, that Muscovites will retain and strengthen their interest in getting the main city emotions and entertainment not "on the side" (in clubs, restaurants, etc.), but on the territory of the shopping center. The most popular will be gastronomic and entertainment venues with an average check of no more than 1,500 rubles per visitor.
Agglomeration development
Large city programs have an undeniable impact on the commercial real estate market. For example, during the 15 months of operation of the MCC, the traffic of objects located near the new stations has increased several times. The coming 2018 will be marked by the movement of at least two major urban projects: the renovation program will enter the active phase, and at the beginning of the year it is planned to approve the scheme of Moscow central diameters.
Entering the active phase of the MDC construction program will improve the status of a number of suburban locations and make them attractive for commercial development. Of course, less global changes will continue in certain areas of the city. Thus, the implementation of the "My Street" program in residential areas will affect the local demand for commercial space, the development of industrial zones will increase the status of adjacent territories, etc.
The launch of renovation has led to an increase in demand for small-area premises in areas of proposed demolition, and this trend will continue in the future. The program has already had an impact on the commercial premises market: in relation to the 4th quarter of 2016, the demand for premises with an area of up to 100 sq. m. m in a number of renovation areas increased by 30–40%. Premises of 30–100 sq. m are in demand. m as part of shopping malls located inside residential areas and in good accessibility from the metro and/or MCC, as well as free-use premises of a similar area as part of office, industrial and warehouse complexes of class B and C, as well as premises on the ground floors of "unbearable" residential buildings.
Cryptocurrency
The rise of bitcoin has not significantly affected the commercial real estate market yet, although a number of market players have already announced the possibility of using cryptocurrency in settlements. In 2017, the Ecoofis Group announced its readiness to accept cryptocurrency for payment, especially since there have already been appeals about transactions with payment in bitcoins, and appeals from successful "spontaneous" investors in bitcoins about the acquisition of space. So 2018, by all indications, may become a period of establishing the "rules of the game" on the use of cryptocurrencies in real estate transactions both at the legislative level and in the practical plane.
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