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22.09.2017 | Степан Максимов

Cushman & Wakefield Press Breakfast

On September 20, a press breakfast was held by Cushman & Wakefield, the topic of which was the question: «What to hope for and what to fear in the commercial real estate market in 2018?""Following the results of the press conference, the main theses were formulated, voiced by the company's experts in the framework of speeches.



Mikhail Mindlin, Partner, Chief Operating Officer of Cushman & Wakefield, on the impact of the banking crisis and the renovation program on the real estate market:

The rehabilitation of two large private Russian banks – «Opening » and «Binbank»  will not cause a stir in the real estate market. If before 2008 commercial banks were very actively involved in lending to existing real estate and project financing of development projects, then after 2008 the situation on the market has changed radically. Today, private banks account for no more than 5% of bank financing of development projects, the remaining share falls on large state-owned banks. Therefore, there will be no catastrophe in the real estate market in connection with the rehabilitation. The market is unlikely to be replenished with new assets for sale.

Thanks to the renovation program, Moscow can catch up with Europe in terms of the availability of retail space. Currently, retail premises on the ground floors in modern residential buildings occupy 5.7% of their total area. Thus, as a result of the renovation program, the area of retail premises in Moscow may increase by 4.5 million square meters. This is a fairly large volume. For comparison, now in Moscow the total volume of shopping centers built is about 5 million square meters. There are different estimates as to how much housing should be built in order for the program to be profitable and pay off. Let's focus on the one-to-two ratio. These are quite large numbers. We understand that the introduction of housing will significantly change the balance of power. And what has been happening in our country without renovation, the consolidation of business and the withdrawal of small and medium-sized players from the market, obviously, will continue at a more accelerated pace. The renovation program will lead to a decrease in competition in the residential real estate market.


Egor Dorofeev, Partner, Head of the Warehouse and Industrial Real Estate Department at Cushman & Wakefield, about online retail and urban logistics development:

"The active development of online retail will lead to the development in megacities of the world, including in large Russian cities, of a segment of small warehouses designed for online commerce. A striking example is the online retailer Amazon, which rented two floors in an office building on Fifth Avenue in New York for a warehouse at the rental rate of office space. Online retailers are able to pay a high rate for the opportunity to deliver an order to their customers in half an hour. A U-turn towards the city is a global trend. Moreover, online retailers do not need large warehouses. Warehouses with an area of 500 square meters to 10 thousand square meters will be in demand in Moscow in the area of the Third Transport Ring or between the TTK and the Garden Ring in locations where delivery of orders by couriers by metro, on foot or by bicycle is possible. But the emerging trend will not replace the existing network of warehouses located at some distance from the city. Classic large warehouse complexes outside the city will be in demand, but already as regional distribution centers.


Evgenia Osipova, Senior Director, Head of Shopping Center Rental at Cushman & Wakefield, about the localization of retail real estate and omnichannel:

Cities are growing and developing, urban spaces comfortable for people are being created, streets are beginning to live. And we see how the focus of developers is shifting towards the construction of small district facilities. Large-scale reconstruction of local real estate, the creation of TPU, complex development of the territory, including the entire social infrastructure, suggests that people no longer want to go to large malls for shopping, proximity to home becomes more important than prices and assortment in shopping centers. A comfortable urban environment is the motto of today's retail market. Large retail chains located on the outskirts and beyond the MKAD are going through difficult times. Local facilities focused on the daily needs of local residents are 5 times more resistant to changes in economic conditions and consumer preferences. If in large malls during the crisis in 2015 there was a decrease in traffic by 10%, then in small shopping centers there was a decrease of only 2%. In 2017, it is in the medium-sized shopping centers of the district format that traffic and conversion are growing the fastest. This trend is taking shape against the background of a reduction in the pace of construction and commissioning. In 2017, only 150 thousand square meters of new retail space will be introduced in Moscow, 120 thousand square meters of which account for Vegas Kuntsevo. In addition, there is an increase in consumer activity: by the end of 2017, this indicator may grow by about 2%. Retail has emerged from the crisis faster than other market segments.

Today, omnichannel sales are actively growing, that is, the flows of online and offline sales are merging, which will help support the retail turnover. Research shows that 75% of people read product reviews on the Internet before buying it offline, 44% of buyers conduct research in offline stores, before making a purchase in an online store, 16% of buyers purchase goods directly through social media channels. Consumers are better informed, follow their favorite brands and have unlimited access to reviews on the Internet. Often, customers themselves dictate to retailers the need to transform interaction within various channels. Companies have serious work to do to improve their processes if they want to remain attractive to customers.