Is the fight deadly?
Experts are convinced that in a situation where incomes and purchasing power continue to fall, and the consumer model has changed once and for all, retailers have entered into the "last battle" not so much with each other, but with all non-retail: from cinemas and entertainment parks to language courses and museums. Is it so?
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Spending on entertainment in Russia is still growing, according to CBRE. True, the source of growth is, on the one hand, the reduction in the share of savings, and on the other hand, the growth of consumer lending. However, next year, 2019, the potential of consumer lending will be largely exhausted, and growing mortgage loans will require additional resources to repay them. Consumers will have to choose between purchasing necessary goods and mandatory expenses, on the one hand, and spending on entertainment, educational services and recreation, on the other. As a result, "optional" segments of retail consumption, such as wardrobe upgrades, the purchase of several pairs of shoes, the cost of buying electronics or a new car, seriously compete with the cost of cafes and restaurants, entertainment, travel services.
In addition, due to the fact that most Russian consumers receive income from employment, entrepreneurship and rental income in rubles, the purchasing power of the national currency has an impact on consumption, according to CBRE. "Given the low current ruble inflation in 2018, within 4%, and stable incomes, the change of which over the past year is close to zero, the prospects for the growth of the entertainment and recreation market are limited," forecasts Konstantin Budagyan. The pension reform is being carried out gradually and after it affects most of the future pensioners in 2024-2026, due to the growth of employment in the group of older people, it will also restrain spending on non-essential services (entertainment, gastronomy, recreation, education, cultural events, part of medical services) and premium goods (fashion industry, jewelry)».
The instability of the political and economic situation, of course, continues to be reflected in the retail market, experts agree S.A. Ricci. At a minimum, the unstable ruble exchange rate reduces the competitiveness of foreign brands, many of which have left Russia altogether over the past year (Podium Market, Family Fashion, owned by the Takko Fashion chain, Finnish brand of household goods Finlayson, a British brand of goods for children and expectant mothers Mamas & Papas, etc.). New brands behave very cautiously and carefully analyze the situation before deciding to enter the Russian market. According to S.A. Ricci, only 37 new international operators entered the Russian market in 2017 (33% more than in 2016). At the same time, brands of domestic designers are actively developing: as a rule, they start with accounts in social networks, and then successfully open showrooms in Moscow shopping centers (12storeez, Alix Story, Gg brands However, it is not yet necessary to talk about fierce competition or, for example, that Russian designers will displace foreign players from the market. "As for the competition between entertainment and fashion operators in the shopping center, I don't see this trend," shares Olga Yarullina, Director of the Retail real estate Department S.A. Ricci. – These two segments do not compete, but complement each other, feeling quite comfortable at the same time. Subject to proper seating, their traffic is the same. If people come to the shopping center for a fashionable purchase, they have the opportunity to leave their child in the play area during the shopping, and, conversely, while the children spend time in "Mania" or "Anthill", parents can safely go shopping. If we talk about retail, as such, it is necessary to note the development of e-commerce: online stores are actively competing with the offline format today. In some cases, this competition turns into a synthesis: offline retailers create online stores where you can pre-order goods, and online operators (for example, Wildberries, Lamoda) open showrooms with fitting rooms.
< span style="font-size: 12px;">Author: Ekaterina Reutskaya
