According to analytics, the volume of commissioning of shopping centers in Moscow in 2018 may become the minimum in six years.Due to the postponement of the opening date of a number of facilities, the forecast was reduced to 137 thousand square meters. m. In the first three quarters of 2018, only 98 thousand square meters of retail space were commissioned in Moscow, which is 13% less than in the same period of the previous year. In the 3rd quarter in Moscow, not a single shopping center was opened at all. Thus, the new offer of this year is currently formed by the shopping center "Kashirskaya Plaza" (71 thousand sq. m.), the mall "Mile" in Zhulebin (19 thousand sq. m.) and the shopping center of the district format "Petrovsky" opened in the 1st half of the year (8.5 thousand sq. m.).

For the 4th quarter, the launch of three more shopping centers was announced: "Arena Plaza" (17 thousand square meters), "Galleon" (14 thousand square meters), "Krasnoprudny" (about 7 thousand square meters). Terms The commissioning of some projects, including the shopping center "Angara" and TPU "Rasskazovka", were postponed to 2019. As a result, the annual volume of the new offer will amount to 137 thousand square meters, which is 12% lower than last year's result.

Comments Ekaterina Zemskaya, head of the retail real estate Department of JLL: "By the end of the year, 38 thousand square meters of high-quality retail space is planned to be commissioned in Moscow, which is a third of the annual volume of commissioning. However, even if all the announced projects are launched, this year's result will be a record low for the last six years.We continue to record the low dynamics of the release of a new offer to the Moscow retail real estate market this year, which is the result of the economic crisis of 2014-2016. Currently, new shopping centers are being actively built, and in 2019, two large facilities are expected to be commissioned - The Island of Dreams and Salaris, as well as a number of small district centers of ADG group. As a result, the volume of the new offer may more than double the figure of 2018 and amount to 321 thousand sq. m."

The share of vacant space in high-quality shopping centers in Moscow continued its decline. The indicator decreased to 5.0% in the 3rd quarter, which is 1 percentage point lower than the same period of the previous year. Taking into account the limited commissioning and the high level of occupancy of new facilities, the vacancy rate will remain at around 5% until the end of the year, which is the minimum value for the last four years.

New international brands on the Russian market showed more restrained interest in the first three quarters of 2018 compared to the same period of the previous year. In total, 23 new brands appeared on the market, compared to 38 in 2017. In addition, five international brands have left the Russian market over the past nine months.

Comments Oksana Kopylova, Head of Retail and Warehouse Real estate Analytics at JLL: "The Russian economy is recovering after the crisis of 2014-2016. However, the weakening of the ruble and the limited supply in top locations act as restraining factors for the expansion of international brands in the Russian market. In the 3rd quarter of 2018, only seven new brands appeared on the Russian market; all of them opened their first stores in Moscow. Among the debuts, it is worth noting the return to the market of the Sephora perfume and cosmetics store chain, which opened its flagship store in Russia in the Aviapark shopping center. It is also possible to single out the American operator of chain restaurants of Chinese cuisine Panda Express, whose first institution in the fast casual format appeared in Moscow in the shopping center "Mega Khimki".

Nevertheless, a number of major international brands are planned to enter the Russian market by the end of 2018. It is expected to open a store of the Swedish fashion retailer COS in the AFIMALL City shopping center, the DreamPlay amusement park from the DreamWorks studio in the Aviapark shopping center. For 2019, the opening of cinemas CJ CGV (the world's fifth cinematographer from South Korea) has been announced, as well as the large fashion retailer Mexx announced its intentions to return to the Russian market.

Source: JLL

Photo: JLL, shutterstock